Home » Economics
Category Archives: Economics
Some thoughts on PUV modernization in the context of the energy crisis
One can help but recall a lot of things past during slow days like those on Holy Week. I was able to write about memories of spending the Holy Week in Iloilo during my younger days. I myself spent most of my Holy Weeks there until after College. My annual “recharging” was only interrupted when I was abroad for three years in the late 1990s. I don’t recall now the last time I was there for Holy Week but perhaps it was after I got married more than 20 years ago. The recollection this week was not only about the sentimental stuff of my childhood and teen days. I couldn’t help but recall some of the work we did many years ago on trying to modernize public utility vehicles, particularly jeepneys.
I was involved in some DOTC (what the DOTr was then) programs and projects about 15 years ago where we sought to replace the old conventional jeepney engines with newer models. This was to reduce emissions and improve fuel efficiency. Electric jeepneys then were still crude in terms of motors and batteries though the body designs were patterned after the conventional jeepneys. They were not as viable as the current models available now. There were also few designs of modern jitneys or minibuses at the time. And jeepney operators and drivers groups indicated their receptiveness to engine replacement. So it was logical to consider engine replacement at the time. Unfortunately, some groups strongly opposed this leaving nothing accomplished from the time.
Fast forward to the present and now, it seems it was correct to at least propose engine replacement at the time. Jeepney engines could have been more fuel efficient aside from having less emissions. Of course, it is now moot and academic and the current crisis might just result in jeepney operators and drivers giving up on their pasada. There is the opinion that jeepneys have been coddled and romanticized for quite some time now (since the 1970s?). It is perhaps time to phase out old vehicles in favor of modern ones. A message to progressive groups though: let’s learn from the lessons of this energy crisis and help with pushing for modernization of road-based public transport. If its the prices of the new models that pose as barriers then lets find ways for more acceptable and affordable financing schemes. Should there be a variant of service contracting by national and/or local government? Find solutions rather than find ways to inhibit or prevent modernization. Throwing obstacles has cost commuters a lot in terms of time and money. Commuters deserve a more modern and efficient transportation system.
Modern jitney in Cebu
–
How about a pop-up BRT along Commonwealth Avenue?
I posted this map on social media showing a possible route for a pop-up BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) along Commonwealth Avenue. This was inspired by the reports this week of the horrendous experience of commuters along this corridor due to the current fuel crisis. It seems that a lot of people have reduced their use of private vehicles in favor of what they thought was adequate public transportation only to find out how lacking the supply was.
While this route can be extended (all the way to Fairview via Regalado, for example), I think the one in the map below would be able to capture a majority of the commuters along the corridor with the end at Dona Carmen being a drop-off/pick-up area for those residing to the north. Quezon City Hall and the Elliptical Road is a no-brainer since the Quezon City Bus service terminates here and people can transfer to one of the other lines that will allow them to travel elsewhere covered by the bus network. Quezon City or DOTr can lease buses and come up with a service contracting scheme to sustain operations. The idea is to first run this pop-up BRT while the crisis in Iran is ongoing. Data collection and assessments should coincide with this to refine the service and perhaps, make recommendations for sustaining this service at least until MRT 7 gets online.
The idea of a pop-up BRT is not really new as there were “proof of concept” runs along Commonwealth and at BGC many years ago. Unfortunately, the BRTs never came to be in both cases; both now missed opportunities as we have come to realize. It’s still a long way before the MRT 7 is up and running. The recent announcement from the proponent that they will probably start operations next year is perceived by many as too late. Government, both national and local, need to be decisive if they want people to be able to go to their workplaces and schools. Maybe this is another opportunity for the more than 70% public transport users to be provided with the services they need while taking advantage of road space being freed up from car dominance?
–
Some thoughts and reflections on transport and the Middle East crisis
Much has been said and written about the ongoing crisis brought about by the US and Israel attacking Iran and the latter retaliating. The prices of fuel have risen rapidly over the past weeks. Consequently, the prices of commodities have also risen. The Philippines is still very much dependent of fossil fuels for transportation with most travel using road-based transport. Even public transportation relies heavily on fossil fuels as buses and jeepneys are mostly using diesel engines. Even paratransit such as trikes and motorcycle taxis use gasoline.
While the energy mix in the country has become more diversified with renewables now having a substantial share, majority of power is produces using coal and natural gas. And so e-powered vehicles are also ultimately dependent on these fuels. Could we have had better transport that could have made our cities more resilient in light of the conflict in the Middle East? Probably, and if we followed and implemented the plans for mass transit systems that were laid out decades ago. Of course, this is already moot and academic given the current situation. The counterfactuals though point to better commuting conditions if projects have not been delayed or shelved.
A colleague and I were just discussing about how MRT 7 could have contributed to the reduction of car use along the Commonwealth Avenue corridor if it was completed according to the original schedule. That was 2019. Even with delays including the impact of the pandemic, it could have been completed a few years ago. If it was operational in 2023, commuters could have already shifted to rail from both private and public road-based transport modes. There was also actually a proposal for a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) line along Commonwealth about 2 decades ago. That could have been constructed and operational ahead of Line 7 and could have already disrupted commuting preferences along the corridor if it were operated as a true BRT.
There’s just a lot of opportunities already missed that could have alleviated the fuel crisis we have now. Maybe we are really heading towards a bigger crisis when all these price increases lead to a more sweeping increase in the prices of commodities? We hope it doesn’t come to that but we seem to be helpless in this situation where we are caught unprepared for a war we are have nothing to do with.
–
inDrive- A cheaper alternative to Grab?
Friends have been sharing that a new player in the TNVS business is less expensive than Grab. And yet they have comparable vehicles and drivers. They are also supposed to be easier to book. I’ve tried them a few times so far but forget to get screencaps to show the difference between the new players and Grab.
Of course, I ended up booking inDrive as it was cheaper by about 60 pesos for a standard car. I will continue taking screen caps for succeeding rides I will be taking in the future.
–
Article on the evaluation of congestion pricing
I want to share this article on the congestion pricing zone in London. This is called the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), which also met resistance when it was first implemented.
Selby, O. (January 16, 2025) “ULEZ expansion hasn’t hurt high street spending,” Centre for Cities, https://www.centreforcities.org/blog/ulez-expansion-hasnt-hurt-high-street-spending/ [Last accessed: 2/1/2025]
Quoting from the article:
“The benefits ULEZ has provided to public health have been studied extensively. The data is clear: London has the worst air quality of any UK city and the capital’s emission zone is helping to change this.
So far, card transaction data does not suggest that ULEZ is harming high street spend. This should reassure policy makers in London, who committed to the emission zone a while ago, and strengthen the convictions of policy makers in New York who are now following suit.”
The article is a nice reference not just for evaluation of similar congestion pricing schemes but can also be used for carless streets or zones. I wonder if there are similar work being done for Baguio’s congestion pricing scheme as well as the carless programs in Ortigas Center. Quezon City should also do this for the newly implemented program along Tomas Morato.
–
Planning for True Transportation Affordability: Beyond Common Misconceptions
How much do we spend on transportation as part of our budgets? Is it 5% of your monthly budget? Is it 10%? Or is it eating up a substantial part of what you’re earning?
Source: Planning for True Transportation Affordability: Beyond Common Misconceptions
To quote from the article:
“This research indicates that many common policies favor expensive transportation and housing over lower-cost alternatives, which drives the cost of living beyond what is affordable, leaving too little money to purchase other necessities. The result is immiseration: growing stress, unhappiness, and discontent.
The solution is simple: planning should favor affordable over expensive modes and compact development over sprawl. This is not to suggest that automobile travel is bad and should be eliminated. Many people are justifiably proud of being able to afford a nice car, and automobiles are the most efficient option for some trips. However, automobile travel requires far more resources and is far more expensive than other modes, typically by an order of magnitude, so true affordability requires an efficient, multimodal transportation system that allows travelers to choose the options that truly reflect their needs and preferences.
Affordability requires a new economic paradigm; rather than trying to increase incomes or subsidies we need to increase affordability and efficiency so households can satisfy their basic needs consuming fewer resources and spending less money. Our planning should be guided by a new goal: how can we help families be poor but happy.”
I share this article because it provides a more complete narrative and assessment than those just focusing on transport. Home choice locations and affordable housing are part of the equation. Looking at transport alone can be myopic and leads us to think it is the only problem to solve.
–
Are transportation issues election issues in the Philippines?
Are transportation issues in the Philippines? Or are these issues at the local level? Here is an article about how transportation issues were brought to light and were actual topics in the ballot in Los Angele, California in the US:
Tu, M. (November 25, 2024 ) “Bike, Bus and Pedestrian Improvements Won the Vote in L.A. How Did Advocates Pull It Off? “ Next City, https://nextcity.org/urbanist-news/bike-bus-pedestrian-improvements-healthy-streets-los-angeles-ballot?utm_source=Next+City+Newsletter&utm_campaign=532838ef65-DailyNL_2024_11_18_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fcee5bf7a0-532838ef65-44383929 [Last accessed: 11/26/2024]
The three lessons in the article are:
- Build a coalition – “In the lead-up to the election in March, Streets For All successfully secured endorsements from unions, climate organizations and business groups that saw the vision for safer streets.”
- Safety wins – “We could make climate arguments, we could make equity arguments, but the thing that felt the most bulletproof to us and the most empathetic to the general Angeleno was just road safety,”
- Keep it simple – “…simple messages were the most effective. Vredevoogd fought for one billboard on Vermont Avenue that read “In 2022, more pedestrians died on Vermont Avenue than in the state of Vermont.”
Los Angeles or LA as many people fondly call the city is well known for being car-centric (as opposed to San Francisco to the north, which is more transit-oriented). Perhaps we can learn from this experience though I know there are already groups and coalitions lobbying for better transportation in the Philippines. Are they successful and to what extent are they succeeding? Granted there are different situations and conditions, even modalities, to engage politicians, there are also so-called party list groups claiming to represent the transport sector but none appear to be really standing up for issues like improving public transport or road safety. And so the challenge is still there for people to make transportation issues election issues in the country.
–
On whether bike lanes cause more traffic congestion
I previously share articles on whether bike lanes cause more traffic. This question has been asked so often as we have returned to the “old normal” levels of traffic and bike lanes that were put up during the pandemic have been neglected or removed in favor of motor vehicle traffic. The perception for those in-charge of traffic and transportation in local government units is that the space occupied by bike lanes take up the space demanded by motor vehicle use. Thus, the view that bike lanes cause congestion. Here is another article share in support of bike lanes:
Mortillaro, N. (October, 2024) “Do bike lanes really cause more traffic congestion? Here’s what the research says,” cbc.ca, https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/bike-lanes-impacts-1.7358319 [Last accessed: 01/11/2024]
To quote from the article:
“One would think that building more roads with more lanes for cars would reduce congestion, but research shows that’s not the case, thanks to something called induced demand. The more traffic lanes that are put in, the more it appeals to people who may not otherwise have chosen to drive, thereby putting more cars on the roads and increasing congestion.
“So for a short period of time, there might be a slightly improved [reduction], but within a year or two, or perhaps three, traffic is as bad or worse than it was before the lanes were added in the first place,” said David Beitel, data services lead at Eco-Counter, a Montreal company that collects and analyzes pedestrian and bicycle traffic data.
Conversely, if you put in more dedicated bike lanes, people tend to feel safer and demand for use increases, said Shoshanna Saxe, an associate professor at the University of Toronto’s department of civil and mineral engineering and Canada Research Chair in sustainable infrastructure.
“As soon as you build a bike lane, within a year, two years, the latent demand shows up,” she said.
Bike Share Toronto statistics show that ridership on its network of shared bikes has increased dramatically since 2015, when 665,000 bike trips were made annually. In 2023, that shot up to 5.7 million trips.”
I think many people here are already aware of the concept of induced demand. However, this is usually shrugged aside as realities in their situations (e.g., commuting options, locations of residences and workplaces, etc.) lead them to choosing private vehicles (i.e., cars and motorcycles) over public or active transport. The last paragraph there is significant though as there never was and so far a decent estimate of bike trips in any city in the Philippines. Granted that there are attempts to measure bike trips but the volumes published so far are not as reliable as we want them to be in order to be convincing decision-makers to put up more bike lanes. Of course, the convincing part is always challenging if decision-makers have already made up their minds in favor of the car.
–
On the need for helmet laws and their implementation to reduce fatal road crashes involving motorcycles
I found this article reporting on findings of their study on helmet laws and their impacts on road safety:
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (October 20, 2024) Lax helmet laws have killed more than 20,000 motorcyclists, study shows, https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/lax-helmet-laws-have-killed-more-than-20-000-motorcyclists-study-shows [Last accessed: 10/23/2024]
To quote from the article:
“Wearing a helmet is one of the biggest things riders can do to protect themselves from death and traumatic brain injury,” said Eric Teoh, IIHS director of statistical services and the author of the paper. “We understand that requiring helmets for all riders everywhere would be unpopular with some motorcyclists, but this could save hundreds of lives each year. Those aren’t just numbers. They’re friends, parents and children.”
There’s a link to the study report in the article for those who want to have a copy of the report.
–
On transportation and global health – article share
I was supposed to write about the keynote lecture delivered during the 30th Annual Conference of the Transportation Science Society of the Philippines (TSSP). I am sharing instead an article written by Dr. Renzo Guinto who is an Associate Professor at the SingHealth Duke-NUS Global Health Institute based at the National University of Singapore.
Here is the link to his article on the Philippine Daily Inquirer: Health at the center of transport and mobility
I will not quote from the article and leave it to my readers to read and appreciate the articles content.
–
Caught (up) in traffic 