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Congestion Costing Reality Check, Part 1: Congestion evaluation best practices
Here’s a quick share of an article from Todd Litman on congestion evaluation:
Widely cited studies claim that traffic congestion is a huge and growing problem. They exaggerate. Let’s examine how to correctly calculate congestion costs and roadway expansion benefits.
Source: Congestion Costing Reality Check, Part 1: Congestion evaluation best practices
Trip purpose, Antipolo City
In the same workshop with Antipolo LGU staff, the following graph was presented showing the purposes of trips made by residents of the city. The data was gathered with the assistance of barangays, which deployed personnel to do a version of the household information surveys (HIS) usually conducted to collect data on transportation and trip making among residents.
It is important to note that most if not all trips eventually end up at home (i.e., coming home from the workplace, school, market, etc.). Thus we can interpret the graph in a way where we can derive the trip purpose other than “to home”. For example, perhaps the real % of work trips is not 21% but 41.0% of trips made other than “going home.” School trips come in second with 29.9% of trips. Third would be shopping trips at 18.8%. These three combine for 89.7% of all trips made by Antipolo City residents. Work and school trips are most likely the most regular or frequent trips. These are the purposes associated with daily commutes whether by public or private transportation. In the next post, I will share data on mode share and try to relate the latter to the trip purpose.
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Travel time maps for Antipolo City
Yesterday, we facilitated a workshop for Antipolo City where technical staff of the city presented on the outcomes of various activities related to the formulation of a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP) for the city. One interesting output from one of the groups is this map showing the travel times within selected driving times with the destination being the Antipolo Shrine (“Antipolo Simbahan” if you will refer to the PUV signboards of those plying routes to Antipolo). The maps are the equivalent of travel time contour maps that can be generated with travel speed or travel time data.
While shown are driving times and assuming car use, similar maps can be produced for public transportation, motorcycles, bicycles and even walking. It is just a matter of collecting the data and plotting them. Alternatively, the data can probably be obtained or derived from sources like Google Traffic or Waze. Some effort, of course, is required in order to have more accurate maps especially considering the road network and traffic circulation. Note that the travel times indicated are also centered on the Antipolo Shrine, which for presentation purposes was used to represent the center of the city. Other maps can be produced in aid of planning travel and transportation for the purposes of the city (e.g., how long it takes between Antipolo and Cubao for a regular commute, etc.).
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On accountability, good governance and missed opportunities
Yesterday was the death anniversary of former President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III whom many fondly called PNoy. His administration saw many fiscal and policy reforms being implemented, resulting in perhaps the best economic performance of the country this century. Of course, they also benefitted from the developments of the previous administration but good sowing cannot result in a good harvest if what was planted was not nurtured to have a good yield in a timely manner. That goes without saying that there were also many low hanging fruits that were not picked for whatever reason the PNoy administration (his people, not necessarily PNoy) had. That included the Cebu BRT project that only recently was partly completed and operational.
Missed opportunities – I always wondered why there were no major infrastructure projects completed during the 6-year term of PNoy. I’m sure someone in the know can refute this but to most people, can we identify a major infra project completed during that time? Were there any new transportation projects like a rail or BRT line completed then? Were there new airports or terminals? Were there tollway projects completed (sections don’t count, we are talking about complete projects)? Any major bridges completed? What were completed mostly were policy and governance related items, particularly those intended to reform a system that was perceived as corrupt and inefficient. It was the same mistake the Cory administration did back in the late 1980s and early 1990s that led to energy and water crisis that the Ramos administration had to address. Of course, that administration had to deal with a lot of political destabilization attempts at the time. That administration had to deal with a lot of projects initiated or in the pipeline by the previous administration, which until now is being regarded as good examples of “what if” for transportation infrastructure. It took a long time, for example, before another mass transit line was constructed in Metro Manila. The reforms now currently being lobbied by various groups could have been done during the PNoy admin but were not. Hopefully, the current administration can catch up given some major players now including the DepDev Secretary were also involved back then.
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More urban expressways for Metro Manila?
I’ve written about expressways before and particularly about where they probably are most suitable and where they shouldn’t be constructed. Here is the article I posted here in 2021: https://d0ctrine.com/2021/05/03/in-defense-of-expressways/
I will not comment anymore about the alignment of the proposed SALEX but here is a “without” and “with” elevated tollway that’s based on a photo of Padre Faura we took while doing a recon around the PGH compound last Friday.
Photo of section of Padre Faura Street fronting U.P. Manila’s Museum of Ideas
AI-assisted image showing the transformation of the section once the proposes SALEX is constructed. The elevated tollway should be higher than the renders you see on social media because there is the Line 1 along Taft Avenue.
Can the trees be saved? Maybe and by saved we don’t mean that they will be transferred. They should be retained where they are.
Why is San Miguel so intent in constructing these tollways? Is it really to “solve” Metro Manila traffic? Most objective, level-headed experts will tell you that the solution involved public and active transportation rather than more tollways. Who is whispering to Ramong Ang’s ears and advising him to build more of these tollways (and bridges)? Your guess is probably as good as mine…
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A tollway over Padre Faura?
We had a recon survey of the streets surrounding the UP Manila and UP PGH compound this morning. We walked the entire time and got to see firsthand the conditions along the streets including Pedro Gil and Padre Faura. I’ve seen and read a lot about the proposed SALEX with an alignment that will have the proposed tollway above Padre Faura.
I can’t imagine the blight that the elevated tollways will have on Padre Faura. It will surely affect traffic along the street during construction. There is a lot of AI-generated renders of what it will look like. However, not clearly shown would be the effect of the tollway on a narrow street like Padre Faura. It will be higher than the Line 1 along Taft Avenue though so most renders you see on social media are incorrect in terms of elevation.
Were the establishments along Padre Faura consulted before the alignment of the proposed tollway was submitted for approval? That alone seems to be a glaring flaw in the PPP law considering the location of the tollway. Why is another tollway for construction in the metropolis when what are required are mass transit lines and better public transport?
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On the reduced traffic due to the energy crisis
The past weeks have seen traffic reduced along my usual routes for my commute between my home and workplace. This could be attributed to the energy crisis as, apparently, many have chosen to plan their trips and use other options other than private/personal transportation for their travels. The reduction in traffic is probably due to reduced numbers of private cars and motorcycles as people cut down on unnecessary trips. Of course, most schools are off at this time of the year so that means a significant number of trips are off the roads (and rails in the case of Metro Manila).
My travel time is only about 60 to 70% of the usual during peak hours. And about half during off-peak. That is a significant reduction in travel time and perhaps translates to not just reduced fuel consumption in general but also reduced emissions as well. On weekends, I also observed that there are less motorcycle traffic to and from Antipolo where I reside. I am referring to the groups who usually have their recreational rides during weekends. Did bicycle traffic increase? My observation is that there seems to be an increase for the weekdays but it’s about the same on weekends. Bicycles, after all, are not affected by the fuel price hikes. Perhaps people who can bike opt for the mode instead of their motorized vehicles? The only way to determine if indeed there were significant mode shift is to do surveys. But for now, careful observation not of traffic but travel times will suffice as proof of the easing of traffic due to the crisis.
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On affordable and inclusive mobility in the Philippines
Here’s a quick share of an article from the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) about affordable and inclusive mobility. The observations and conclusions are actually familiar because these have been articulated before when the topics were brought up in the context of environmentally sustainable transport (EST).
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How about a pop-up BRT along Commonwealth Avenue?
I posted this map on social media showing a possible route for a pop-up BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) along Commonwealth Avenue. This was inspired by the reports this week of the horrendous experience of commuters along this corridor due to the current fuel crisis. It seems that a lot of people have reduced their use of private vehicles in favor of what they thought was adequate public transportation only to find out how lacking the supply was.
While this route can be extended (all the way to Fairview via Regalado, for example), I think the one in the map below would be able to capture a majority of the commuters along the corridor with the end at Dona Carmen being a drop-off/pick-up area for those residing to the north. Quezon City Hall and the Elliptical Road is a no-brainer since the Quezon City Bus service terminates here and people can transfer to one of the other lines that will allow them to travel elsewhere covered by the bus network. Quezon City or DOTr can lease buses and come up with a service contracting scheme to sustain operations. The idea is to first run this pop-up BRT while the crisis in Iran is ongoing. Data collection and assessments should coincide with this to refine the service and perhaps, make recommendations for sustaining this service at least until MRT 7 gets online.
The idea of a pop-up BRT is not really new as there were “proof of concept” runs along Commonwealth and at BGC many years ago. Unfortunately, the BRTs never came to be in both cases; both now missed opportunities as we have come to realize. It’s still a long way before the MRT 7 is up and running. The recent announcement from the proponent that they will probably start operations next year is perceived by many as too late. Government, both national and local, need to be decisive if they want people to be able to go to their workplaces and schools. Maybe this is another opportunity for the more than 70% public transport users to be provided with the services they need while taking advantage of road space being freed up from car dominance?
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Some thoughts and reflections on transport and the Middle East crisis
Much has been said and written about the ongoing crisis brought about by the US and Israel attacking Iran and the latter retaliating. The prices of fuel have risen rapidly over the past weeks. Consequently, the prices of commodities have also risen. The Philippines is still very much dependent of fossil fuels for transportation with most travel using road-based transport. Even public transportation relies heavily on fossil fuels as buses and jeepneys are mostly using diesel engines. Even paratransit such as trikes and motorcycle taxis use gasoline.
While the energy mix in the country has become more diversified with renewables now having a substantial share, majority of power is produces using coal and natural gas. And so e-powered vehicles are also ultimately dependent on these fuels. Could we have had better transport that could have made our cities more resilient in light of the conflict in the Middle East? Probably, and if we followed and implemented the plans for mass transit systems that were laid out decades ago. Of course, this is already moot and academic given the current situation. The counterfactuals though point to better commuting conditions if projects have not been delayed or shelved.
A colleague and I were just discussing about how MRT 7 could have contributed to the reduction of car use along the Commonwealth Avenue corridor if it was completed according to the original schedule. That was 2019. Even with delays including the impact of the pandemic, it could have been completed a few years ago. If it was operational in 2023, commuters could have already shifted to rail from both private and public road-based transport modes. There was also actually a proposal for a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) line along Commonwealth about 2 decades ago. That could have been constructed and operational ahead of Line 7 and could have already disrupted commuting preferences along the corridor if it were operated as a true BRT.
There’s just a lot of opportunities already missed that could have alleviated the fuel crisis we have now. Maybe we are really heading towards a bigger crisis when all these price increases lead to a more sweeping increase in the prices of commodities? We hope it doesn’t come to that but we seem to be helpless in this situation where we are caught unprepared for a war we are have nothing to do with.
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Caught (up) in traffic 