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Tag Archives: Mode Share
Musings on a Sunday morning – on mode shift after railway projects are completed
A news article came out yesterday about the acting Secretary of Transportation stating that the number of vehicles on the roads will fall by 1 million once all railway projects are completed. I countered on my social media that he might just eat his words. Friends were more humorous in their comments including one saying that might just happen in the year 2100 (when we’ve all passed). Then, there are comments about this happening without railways, thanks to the escalation in fuel prices.
I wrote about my take on future rail use in the following article here back in 2019. There are others I’ve written earlier that were based on observations and research we have conducted the last 3 decades on transportation mode shares and the impacts of new railway lines.
While I would love to see people shifting from private vehicle use to public transportation (especially to rail), I am more grounded with my expectations. The Metro Manila Subway line will certainly be a game changer, and probably partly because it is not along any of the current corridors. It is unlike Lines 1, 2, 3 and the future 7 that are along corridors where they are or will be directly competing with existing road public transport modes. In the latter cases, people already taking public transport (road-based) would likely be the same people shifting to rail. As for the private transport users, they might just stick to their cars – unless, of course, they couldn’t afford the fuels or to acquire an electric or hybrid vehicle.
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Bakit ma-traffic sa Ortigas Avenue? [Why is Ortigas Avenue congested?]
Bakit ma-traffic sa _______? I usually pose this question to my audience (e.g., students, trainees, etc.). In this post, I attempt to answer the question in the title using data we collected for Antipolo City’s Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP). In one of the workshops, I asked the participants from the local government unit (i.e., from the various transport-related offices of Antipolo City) to try to determine the traffic mix for Ortigas Avenue Extension (also named Corazon Aquino Avenue from the Antipolo side) based on the traffic counts conducted at a station along the section that connected Antipolo with Taytay (at Tikling Junction). They also had performed vehicle occupancy counts along the same location so
These are just the numbers from the Antipolo surveys. Note that Ortigas Avenue Extension serves as a collector for the Rizal towns including Taytay and Cainta as well as for Pasig City. If we have similar numbers for the traffic mix and occupancies, then we can conclude that most people are actually using private vehicles with a surprising share being carried by motorcycles! That seems to go against the narrative that private vehicle ownership is low and that most people take public transportation. At least for the case presented here, that is not true, and we seem to be underestimating private vehicle use or preference.
Next: Bakit ma-traffic sa Marcos Highway?
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Traffic congestion along EDSA
I’ve taken some photos of EDSA traffic as well as the EDSA Carousel buses. Here are the more recent EDSA photos I took as I traveled from Makati to Quezon City after serving as a panelist in the Energy Transitions Dialogue last Wednesday.
I took this photo as we passed Guadalupe. I like this in the sense that it shows the clear ROW for the EDSA Carousel buses. One wonders why most of these motorists would prefer to drive their vehicles rather than take the bus or the MRT.
You can see in the photo that EDSA’s northbound side is clogged as far as the eye could see. If you check the image under the MRT bridge, it shows the southbound side was also congested. These photos were taken around 4 PM so this was still an hour before most people would be going home from work.
I mentioned in my comments at the panel that one consequence of giving number coding exemption to electric and hybrid vehicles is that this further diminishes the effectiveness (is it still effective?) of the MMDA’s number coding scheme. I don’t have the stats of how many EV’s and hybrids are registered and running in Metro Manila. Those numbers combined with actual counts will tell us how they are impacting traffic. That would be a nice topic for a paper. 🙂
The photos pretty much describe the transport situation in Metro Manila. Many of our major cities will be heading this way unless they improve their public transportation fast. If they do, then public transport mode share will be sustained if not increased. Metro Manila’s is already being eroded by inefficient public transport, motorcycles (including taxis) and perhaps unintentionally, electric and hybrid vehicles.
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On whether bike lanes cause more traffic congestion
I previously share articles on whether bike lanes cause more traffic. This question has been asked so often as we have returned to the “old normal” levels of traffic and bike lanes that were put up during the pandemic have been neglected or removed in favor of motor vehicle traffic. The perception for those in-charge of traffic and transportation in local government units is that the space occupied by bike lanes take up the space demanded by motor vehicle use. Thus, the view that bike lanes cause congestion. Here is another article share in support of bike lanes:
Mortillaro, N. (October, 2024) “Do bike lanes really cause more traffic congestion? Here’s what the research says,” cbc.ca, https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/bike-lanes-impacts-1.7358319 [Last accessed: 01/11/2024]
To quote from the article:
“One would think that building more roads with more lanes for cars would reduce congestion, but research shows that’s not the case, thanks to something called induced demand. The more traffic lanes that are put in, the more it appeals to people who may not otherwise have chosen to drive, thereby putting more cars on the roads and increasing congestion.
“So for a short period of time, there might be a slightly improved [reduction], but within a year or two, or perhaps three, traffic is as bad or worse than it was before the lanes were added in the first place,” said David Beitel, data services lead at Eco-Counter, a Montreal company that collects and analyzes pedestrian and bicycle traffic data.
Conversely, if you put in more dedicated bike lanes, people tend to feel safer and demand for use increases, said Shoshanna Saxe, an associate professor at the University of Toronto’s department of civil and mineral engineering and Canada Research Chair in sustainable infrastructure.
“As soon as you build a bike lane, within a year, two years, the latent demand shows up,” she said.
Bike Share Toronto statistics show that ridership on its network of shared bikes has increased dramatically since 2015, when 665,000 bike trips were made annually. In 2023, that shot up to 5.7 million trips.”
I think many people here are already aware of the concept of induced demand. However, this is usually shrugged aside as realities in their situations (e.g., commuting options, locations of residences and workplaces, etc.) lead them to choosing private vehicles (i.e., cars and motorcycles) over public or active transport. The last paragraph there is significant though as there never was and so far a decent estimate of bike trips in any city in the Philippines. Granted that there are attempts to measure bike trips but the volumes published so far are not as reliable as we want them to be in order to be convincing decision-makers to put up more bike lanes. Of course, the convincing part is always challenging if decision-makers have already made up their minds in favor of the car.
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On congestion due to school drop-offs
I found this rather interesting article about congestion at school drop-offs in the US:
Hurley, K. (September 16, 2024) “How School Drop-Off  Became a Nightmare,” The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2024/09/school-drop-off-cars-chaos/679869/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share [Last accessed: 9/26/2024]
To quote from the article:
“Today, more parents in the United States drive kids to school than ever, making up more than 10 percent of rush-hour traffic. The result is mayhem that draws ire from many groups. For families, the long waits are at best a stressful time suck and at worst a work disruptor. Some city planners take the car line as proof of our failure to create the kind of people-centered neighborhoods families thrive in. Climate scientists might consider it a nitrogen-oxide-drenched environmental disaster. Scolds might rail at what they see as helicopter parents chaperoning their kids everywhere. Some pediatricians might point out the health threats: sedentary children breathing fumes or at risk of being hit by a car.”
The situation described in the article is actually already happening for quite a long time now in the Philippines and mostly at private schools. You have the same issues with the traffic congestion and road safety risks faced by schoolchildren in schools like Ateneo and LaSalle. The more ‘elite’ public schools like the science high schools may also have similar concerns. Can these be really addressed at the local level or is there a deeper, more complicated problem that needs to be tackled here (just to clarify that my questions are for our case here in the Philippines and not in the US)?
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On ride hailing replacing more sustainable options for transport
We’ve long suspected that ride hailing or ride sharing is not as sustainable as their proponents and companies would project them to be. Here is more evidence showing how ride hailing has diminished other more sustainable transport options.
Kerlin, K. (August 28, 2024) “Half of Uber, Lyft Trips Replace More Sustainable Options,” UC Davis News, https://www.ucdavis.edu/news/half-uber-lyft-trips-replace-more-sustainable-options [Last accessed: 9/8/2024]
Quoting from the article:
“About 47% of the trips replaced a public transit, carpool, walking or cycling trip. An additional 5.8% of trips represented “induced travel,” meaning the person would not have made the trip were an Uber or Lyft unavailable. This suggests ride-hailing often tends to replace most sustainable transportation modes and leads to additional vehicle miles traveled. “
The article and the study by UC Davis is limited to their experiences with Uber and Lyft and perhaps others that employ cars. In our case, we have in addition motorcycle taxis or habal-habal that further takes away passengers from public and active transportation. Motorcycle taxis provide a very attractive alternative to conventional public transport modes as these are perceived to reduce travel times among other advantages they provide to users.
I will share some information later about the current mode shares in Metro Manila and how drastically public transport mode shares have been eroded post pandemic.
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When Driving Isn’t an Option: Steering Away From Car Dependency
Here is another quick share of an article from Planetizen. The article relates about people who cannot drive so driving for them is not an option:
Source: When Driving Isn’t an Option: Steering Away From Car Dependency
Quoting from the article:
“Zivarts shows that it is critical to include people who can’t drive in transportation planning decisions. She outlines steps that organizations can take to include and promote leadership of those who are most impacted—and too often excluded—by transportation systems designed by and run by people who can drive. “
There are actually many who can drive and who would like not to drive but then opt to drive because of limited and inconvenient or uncomfortable options. I think government agencies and local government units are supposed to work on this but like people who try to ‘solve’ traffic by isolating it from other factors such as housing, they ultimately gain little ground if not fail. It doesn’t help that the decision makers such as government officials and politicians drive or are driven. Of course, there is still such a thing as empathy so let’s not discount those who do use cars for their commutes but also work hard to improve transportation. It’s just that such people are rare these days and may not be in a position to move things to enable significant improvements to the transportation system.
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Ownership is not equal to use – on bike ownership in the Philippines
There is a nice graphic going around social media about bicycle and vehicle ownership in the Philippines. It is attributed to the Social Weather Stations (SWS), which conducted a survey on vehicle ownership in the country during the first quarter of 2023. Most conspicuous is the inclusion of bicycles considering that past national surveys (especially those conducted by the PSA or NSA) did not include bicycles but only motor vehicles in their surveys.
The graph shows many households owning bicycles (24% as of Mar 2023) while those who owned 4-wheel motor vehicles are only at 6%. The quick conclusion I see in many social media posts is that only 6% of HH use cars and that 24% use bicycles. This is actually fallacious and therefore misleading. Such assessments and conclusions is far from being factual considering ownership in this case does not necessarily translate to use, particularly for the most important trips made during the day – commutes to work and school. In other words, a household owning at least one bicycle does not mean they use it for their regular commutes.
The graph also states that the data is for the entire country. Thus, it does not give us a more accurate take for cities, particularly the highly urbanized ones. Are the % the same for cities like those in Metro Manila? How were the samplings conducted? These are important because if we have the wrong data and assumptions, we won’t be able to understand the problem at hand. We will not be able to formulate the most suitable solutions to address the transport problems we are experiencing. On the part of SWS, they should be clarifying what the data means rather than be content of people using their data to mislead or peddle narratives for advocacies that may be worthy yet use misinformation as a means to an end.
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On reducing vehicle travel
This Sunday, I am sharing this article on the reduction of excess vehicle travel. I noted the use of the word ‘excess’ here, which somewhat distinguishes what is excess from what is necessary vehicle (or car) use.
Litman, T. (September 8, 2023) “How to reduce excess vehicle travel,” Planetizen, https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/125445-how-reduce-excess-vehicle-travel?utm_source=Planetizen+Updates&utm_campaign=b3ced8c873-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_08_09_05_38_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-6cce27a957-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D&mc_cid=b3ced8c873&mc_eid=9ccfe464b1 [Last accessed: 9/17/2023]
To quote from the article:
“Too often, practitioners undercount and undervalue slower but more affordable, inclusive, and resource-efficient modes such as walking, bicycling, and public transit. This contributes to the self-reinforcing cycle of automobile dependency and sprawl, illustrated below. We have an opportunity to break this cycle by recognizing the unique and important roles that walking, bicycling, and public transit can play in an efficient and equitable transportation system, and the cost efficiency of vehicle travel reduction policies. Telework can help, but only if implemented as part of an integrated program to create a more diverse, efficient and equitable transportation system.”
There is a lot you can pick up from this article, which sheds a light of hope towards addressing the most pressing issues particularly for our daily commutes. Litman is always clear and evidence-based for his discussions. His arguments are very persuasive if only decision-makers are not resistant to the facts about transport.
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Shared rides, anyone?
Would you share your ride with other people? This is not the conventional ride-sharing where you drive for someone else (i.e., Grab, Uber, etc.) but refers to a passenger sharing the vehicle he/she booked with another passenger or passengers. This is supposed to reduce the cost of the ride but can lead to more distance traveled as the matching of passengers has not been perfected. That is, it is likely to share a ride with a person heading to a destination that is out of the way of the passenger (in as far as typical routes are concerned).
Walker, J. (May 26, 2023) “Lyft: The End of Shared Rides,” Human Transit, https://humantransit.org/2023/05/lyft-the-end-of-shared-rides.html [Last accessed: 6/12/2023]
To quote from the article:
“I used this service once. On a departure from the airport, it paired my trip with one in a substantially different direction. The other trip was to a point further from the airport than my destination, and yet it served that trip first. I ended up with a travel time about twice what my direct travel time would have been, and much more than the app had estimated. I never used this option again. My impression was that they were overselling the product in contexts where it wasn’t appropriate, and they were offering the same discount to the person dropped off first — whose trip is exactly what it would have been if traveling alone — as to the person whose trip was being made much longer.”
We actually already have shared rides in the Philippines. This is in the form of UV Express (formerly and popularly referred to as FX after the Toyota vehicle model that became popular from the 1990s), which continue to be a popular mode of public transport. Shared rides evolved from a group of people negotiating with FX taxi drivers to take them to a common point or destination (not to their final destinations). At the common destination, the passengers will eventually part ways for their last mile trips. Here is the article on a taxi service that eventually became a shared service I wrote a while back:
That was before there were apps to facilitate the sharing. I think this also showed how people will find ways to overcome problems like a lack of public transportation for their commutes.
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