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Dream plan for the Greater Capital Region?
A report came out last Saturday on a major daily about a JICA study estimating losses of as much as 2.4 Billion pesos per day due to traffic jams experienced in Metro Manila. Not mentioned was the 1.0 Billion pesos per day estimated losses for the Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna and Cavite areas that are at present considered part of what has been loosely defined as Mega Manila or the Greater Capital Region (GCR). That’s 3.4 Billion pesos per day of lost productivity and potential income that if reduced, could generate resources that could be distributed to the rest of the country. The JICA estimate, as reported by NEDA, is the product of a study that is in its concluding phase that looked into transport for an area comprised of Metro Manila, Region 3 (Central Luzon) and Region 4A (Southern Tagalog or Calabarzon). The main objective of the study was to come up with a Transport Infrastructure Framework and Roadmap for the GCR that would guide planners and engineers, and most importantly decision-makers (i.e., our leaders) in identifying and prioritizing transport infra projects that would ultimately improve the way we travel in the GCR.
While I am not at liberty at present to divulge the details of this study as the entirety has not been made public yet, I can say that the study was comprehensive and the conclusion an urgent reminder to what needs to be done for transport in the GCR. The latter is necessary because we have failed to deliver on the transport infrastructure required by Metro Manila and its surrounding areas since the late 1970s adn early 1980s when some decisions were made that were detrimental to public transport development and, to my view, inhibited and limited us from implementing a much more efficient transport system than what we have now. In my own conversations with the person who led the study, I can understand his own frustrations as he was himself a witness to the deterioration of transport in this country. Much of this deterioration have been attributed to a lack of political will to make the hard decisions in relation to transport. These decisions include those pertaining to the rationalization of transport services like phasing out jeepneys and tricycles where they are no longer suitable and committing to the implementation of mass transit projects that have been delayed for decades now.
Network of recommended rail rapid transit (RRT) lines for the Manila Metropolitan area in 1973 (UTSMMA, 1973)
Perhaps we are at a crossroads in terms of transport in this country. Perhaps our leaders should listen to the clamor of their constituents for better transport systems in our cities, for more efficient ways to move about. Perhaps, too, we could finally see what’s really at the end of the tunnel rather than the proverbial light that we have always seen, frustratingly, for the past few decades. Perhaps the current administration will prove itself the catalyst for transforming transport in this country towards what it has preached as a “straight path.” Will we have a champion or champions who would push for the realization of a dream plan for transport? Whoever should step forward would definitely get my vote in 2016!
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Flash floods and traffic congestion
Traffic last night along most of Metro Manila’s roads were a nightmare. It took many people hours before they could reach their homes from their offices and schools. The main reason cited for the horrendous traffic jams was the weather. It has been raining almost every afternoon in Metro Manila and its surrounding areas due to the combination of a tropical depression east of the island of Luzon and the intensified monsoon rains (Habagat). Rainfall intensity combined with a high percentage of the water translating into runoff contributed to flash floods all around Metro Manila including some that were waist-high, rendering the road impassable to most vehicles. However, while a lot of motorists and commuters were simmering along many roads last night, I couldn’t help but notice that most vehicles in the photos circulating in social media sites and news footage are private vehicles. Buses along EDSA occupied only the outermost lane for most stretches of the road. Meanwhile, conspicuous is the space in the middle of EDSA, which is the ROW for the MRT-3 tracks.
One lesson we learned last night was something we already knew all along and have failed miserably to address – we need better public transport in Metro Manila. Could there have been less cars on the roads affected by flash floods brought about by the heavy rains yesterday? Could commuters have had an easier way of traveling between their offices or schools and their homes? The answer is yes, that is, we could have built the necessary public transport infrastructure years ago. While there is a need to be transparent and have a corruption-free (is there such a thing?) process for planning, funding, designing, and constructing public transport infrastructure, we must realize that these are all systems that we should have had long ago, and further delay only dooms mobility and accessibility in our cities. Our leaders seem to be too engrossed with processes and making sure they won’t get entangled in controversies or lawsuits that they forget that time is ticking and all other people are caught in the mess that is the traffic congestion we experience every day. I wonder if at least some of our decision-makers for transport and traffic were caught in the monstrous jams last night? Maybe getting caught in one would change their perspectives and give them a sense of urgency for the task at hand? Or maybe, and likely, they were sitting behind their cars and burning time on their notebooks or tablets while their drivers were trying to maneuver in traffic? Frankly, we deserve better transport than what we have but then we don’t get to decide what gets built and when such infrastructure will be built, if at all. We could, however, do our part in lobbying (or demanding) for better transport.
Taken by a good friend commuting to his home last night:
From the GMA News website:
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Poverty should not be entrusted to economists | Social Watch
Saw this article shared on Facebook. I thought it was a relevant piece with respect to a work I am currently doing, relating transport infrastructure and services with economic growth in the Philippines. With the release of the latest poverty statistics in the country late last month, there has been a lot of discussions regarding inclusive growth as poverty incidence across the country is still quite high though there have been gains in many provinces based on the statistics.
Poverty should not be entrusted to economists | Social Watch.
I suddenly remember the experience we had while doing field work in the island of Samar where we performed a road safety audit for a national road. While coordinating with the barangays along the highway for our traffic surveys, we observed that people were generally poor but in the financial sense – they didn’t have money and many didn’t have regular jobs. I say this because I would like to qualify the way we define poverty that is biased on the monetary aspect. From what we saw, people were not hungry as they had food like fruits and vegetables. Perhaps to get other items, they trade or barter what they have with what they needed (e.g., vegetables for rice, fish for rice, etc.). Still, the point is for these same people to generally benefit from the economic gains that is supposed to be experienced by the country. Is the growth trickling down to these people and therefore inclusive? Or is it enjoyed only by a few and especially our elite classes, and therefore exclusive? So far, what I have seen out there is the latter case and not the former.
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Daniel Romualdez Airport in Tacloban
I had been to Tacloban only once before and was not able to take some photos of the airport. This time around, I was able to get a few photos as I checked in for my flight back to Manila. Tacloban Airport is among the busiest airports in the country serving more than 1 million passengers annually. Tacloban is the regional center of Eastern Visayas and is the only airport in that region with jet airline (A319s and A320s) service. Despite the increasing demand due to growth in both industry and tourism, the airport is limited by its runway and terminal. A planeload of passengers already crowd the pre-departure area on a regular basis and conditions in the area is not at all comfortable. While there is a room for changing diapers and another for breastfeeding (thanks to DOTC’s Gender Awareness and Development program), there are few other amenities at the terminal.
Philippine Airlines check-in counter
Cebu Pacific and Zest Air check-in counters
Ceb Pac passengers waiting to board the aircraft on the tarmac
Another shot of the crowded pre-departure area
PAL passengers waiting for their plane to arrive
Tacloban Airport is due for expansion with a new terminal proposed for construction nearby. The land where the new terminal will be constructed has been acquired and cordoned off and I was told that the runway will be lengthened. I am just not sure if DOTC or CAAP has acquired the lands necessary for the runway component of the project but upgrading the runway for the airport to accommodate wide bodied aircraft will indeed require much land. Nevertheless, it is a project that is long overdue and needed to push for development of the region, which has one of the higher incidence of poverty at 37.2% for Region 8. Leyte has a 31.9% poverty incidence while Southern Leyte is at 36.4%. Neighboring Samar provinces have even worse statistics with Western Samar at 36%, Northern Samar at 43.7% and Eastern Samar at a staggering 59.4% poverty incidence. These stats are based on the figures recently released by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) based on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) conducted in 2012.
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Poverty Statistics in the Philippines
The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) of the Philippines recently released poverty statistics as of the first semester of 2012. The report is based on the outcomes of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) conducted by the National Statistics Office (NSO) in July 2012. Both agencies are under the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA). The stats on poverty incidence are shown in the following link:
In relation to these poverty figures, the NEDA Director General Arsenio Balisacan issued the following statement:
STATEMENT OF SEC. BALISACAN AT THE PRESS CONFERENCE ON THE 2012 FIRST SEMESTER POVERTY STATISTICS
I am curious to see how much of family expenditures go to transport. Clearly, the state of the country’s transportation system is a significant factor in development and the government’s initiatives towards inclusive growth will not prosper if we continue to have inefficient transport across all modes for both people and goods.
The Economic Case for Rail Subsidies
Today, I’m sharing a nice article on rail subsidies from The Atlantic Cities:
Loss of productivity due to congestion and inefficient public transport
I recently read two articles appearing in a major Philippine daily and a popular online site. The first one is an article that appeared in the Philippine Daily Inquirer – “PH economy losing $3.27B in human productivity due to traffic mess” – last September 25, 2012. The other article was posted on Rappler – “Traffic and infrastructure delays cost the Philippines” – last September 27, 2012. These were articles written after the authors’ attendance of what was an Energy and Infrastructure Forum last Sept. 25 where a transport official mentioned a recent study in his talk that estimates productivity losses of about 3.27B USD per year from Metro Manila traffic alone.
Traffic congestion along Commonwealth Avenue
Unusual traffic management scheme along Ortigas Avenue
The study from the National Center for Transportation Studies that was mentioned in both articles was actually first featured in a Yahoo! Philippines article – “Traffic congestion costs Metro Manila P137B per year” – that appeared a month earlier in Aug. 28, 2012. The study being referred to is actually a paper presented by Dr. Jose Regin F. Regidor in his Professorial Chair lecture at the University of the Philippines Diliman’s College of Engineering Colloquium in early August 2012. A copy of the paper may be found below:
Prof Chair 2012 JRFR 02July2012
The main reference for this paper is the study on congestion costs that was produced by the National Center for Transportation Studies back in 2000. Credits go to the core team of Dr. Ricardo Sigua (Institute of Civil Engineering of UP Diliman), Dr. Noriel Tiglao (now with the National College of Public Administration and Governance) and Dr. Val Teodoro (now in the US) for the study. The
Economic Impacts of Traffic Congestion in Metro Manila – Cover+Chap 1 and 2
Economic Impacts of Traffic Congestion in Metro Manila – Chap 3
Economic Impacts of Traffic Congestion in Metro Manila – Chap 4 and 5
Economic Impacts of Traffic Congestion in Metro Manila – Appendix
A much needed update may be possible in the next two years once the traffic model for Metro Manila is updated and calibrated using new data from Household Informations Surveys (HIS) and other transport and traffic surveys under the current MUCEP study that is supported by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). Hopefully, such a model can be updated and calibrated more often in order to assess losses due to congestion and our continuing inability to provide the necessary infrastructure to alleviate the situation. While the paper and the study mentioned above focus on productivity losses, it should be emphasized that there are other costs that should be highlighted including those related to health (respiratory diseases and road crash fatalities and injuries), energy (fuel consumption and inefficiencies), and emissions (carbon and other GHG).
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Professorial Chair 2012 presentations on Transportation
The Transportation Engineering Group of the Institute of Civil Engineering of the University of the Philippines Diliman held a special session for its Professorial Chair Lectures last August 10, 2012 at the Toyota Training Room of the National Center for Transportation Studies. Four lectures were delivered by ICE faculty members who are also Research and Extension Fellows at the NCTS. Following are a few photos taken during the colloquium.
Dr. Sean Palmiano presenting on the Investigation of Road Crash Causal Factors in Metro Manila (DMCI Developers Professorial Chair)
Dr. Karl Vergel presenting on the Design of Traffic Signal Timing and Traffic Impacts of the Re-Introduction of Traffic Signal Control at the Intersection of the University Avenue and Commonwealth Avenue (Maynilad Professorial Chair)
Dr. Ric Sigua presenting on Microscopic Simulation: A Tool for Evaluation of Traffic Schemes (Prof. Emeritus Norbert S. Vila Professorial Chair)
Dr. Regin Regidor presenting on Revisiting the Costs of Traffic Congestion in Metro Manila and their Implications (Pozzolanic Philippines, Inc. Professorial Chair)
Audience consisting of various participants including those from the DPWH, DOTC and MMDA who were invited for the colloquium.
Graduate students and technical staff from the College of Engineering and the National Center for Transportation Studies also attended the lectures. Unfortunately, classes were suspended that week due to the monsoon rains that resulted in widespread flooding in Metro Manila so undergraduate students were not able to attend the colloquium.
The presentation files may be found in a previous post where links for downloading are provided. These may also be found in the NCTS website.
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Professorial Chair Lectures on Transportation Topics – 2012
The College of Engineering of the University of the Philippines Diliman recently held its Professorial Chair Colloquium where lectures were delivered by faculty members from the various institutes and departments comprising the college. Four lectures were delivered last August 10, 2012 at a special session held at the Toyota Training Room of the National Center for Transportation Studies. The lectures were on transportation topics and presented by faculty members of the Institute of Civil Engineering who are also Fellows at the NCTS. Following are the lectures and the presentation files in PDF:
Palmiano, H.S.O., Investigation of Road Crash Causal Factors in Metro Manila, DMCI Developers Professorial Chair: Road Safety Researches HSOPalmiano 10Aug2012
Vergel, K.N., Design of Traffic Signal Timing and Traffic Impacts of the Re-Introduction of Traffic Signal Control at the Intersection of the University Avenue and Commonwealth Avenue, Maynilad Professorial Chair: Traffic Signal Timing KNVergel 10Aug2012
Sigua, R.DG., Microscopic Simulation: A Tool for Evaluation of Traffic Schemes, Prof. Emeritus Norbert S. Vila Professorial Chair: Traffic Simulation RDGSigua 10Aug2012
Regidor, J.R.F., Revisiting the Costs of Traffic Congestion in Metro Manila and their Implications, Pozzolanic Philippines, Inc. Professorial Chair: Revisiting Costs of Congestion JRFRegidor 10Aug2012
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A tale of transport costs for a commuter
When I was in high school, the minimum fare was 1 peso and my daily afternoon commute from school cost me an average of 3 pesos per day. If we didn’t have to go to school for extra-curricular activities on a Saturday, that meant I usually spend 15 pesos per week or about 60 pesos per month. I remember that my parents paid 200 pesos for the school service, which only covered the morning trips from home to school. This brought my monthly transport cost total to 260 pesos and this was back in the 1980’s. At the time my weekly allowance was 100 pesos (~400/month); more than enough for my lunch and snacks, and which allowed me to save some money that I usually deposited in my savings account. Of course, my actual total allowance was 600 pesos per month factoring in the amount my parents paid for the school service. These figures meant transport accounted for 43.33% of what was my income back then (15% if the school service component was not included).
At university in the early 1990’s, my allowance was up to 300 pesos per week. Transport fares, however, increased with a minimum fare of 2 pesos (for the first 4 kilometers) and my two rides one way to the university cost me a total of 5 pesos per trip. This could easily be multiplied by two if I was able to get an easy ride home from Katipunan but traffic was already worsening at the time and I, together with a few friends who had similar commutes, often found myself going to Cubao where the terminal was so I could get a sure ride home. This meant I had to shell out an additional 6 pesos on certain days. I estimate that my weekly total could average around 80 pesos, bringing my monthly average up to 320 pesos. That translates to 26.67% of what can be considered as my monthly income at the time.
By the time I was in graduate school in the mid 1990s, commuting in Metro Manila was a whole different animal with congestion along my route really becoming terrible. It was so terrible that the conditions then resulted in the birth of what was called FX services. The then newly introduced Asian Utility Vehicles (AUV), particularly the Toyota Tamaraw FX’s, that originally were registered as regular taxis started contracting passengers (illegally) in order to maximize their fares. It was actually the other way around as passengers who were exasperated at the very long queues in Cubao decided to contract FX taxis as groups and offering the drivers fares they just couldn’t refuse given that their being taxis allowed for flexible travel routes bypassing congested roads. By the time, the going rate was 10 pesos per passenger for an FX taxi starting from Cubao and ending at Cainta Junction. I was among the people willing to pay for this luxury, considering it saved me a lot of time and the ride then was comfortable due to the airconditioning on these vehicles. Perhaps it was also my way of applying what I understood from my transport economics lessons from my Japanese professor back then.
My daily commute during my grad school days cost me around 30 pesos for a total of about 200 pesos per week counting Saturdays and other side trips during the week. This to me was quite acceptable considering I had a scholarship grant at the time that gave me 3,000 pesos per month excluding other allowances that covered research expenses. The significant increase in my income was actually just enough to retain the percentage I spend for transport. Due to the corresponding increase in my transport costs, the percentage I spent for transport remained at 26.67%!
Taking post grad studies in Japan a few years later, I estimate that my average monthly transport costs amounted to around 20,000 yen (I traveled practically everyday using trains and buses.) This didn’t include the very occasional taxi on late nights when trains and buses were no longer available from the city center to the dormitory. My monthly allowance though was a very generous 185,000 yen so transport only accounted for 10.81% of my monthly income. This meant I had money available for a comfortable life abroad after accounting for my needs (e.g., food and shelter) and factoring in savings towards my estimated disposable income at the time.
The above examples are illustrations of how much transport costs become significant considerations in our typical expenses. Transport costs like the fares I paid when I was a student ate up a significant part of what was considered my income at different times. My case can probably be considered as fortunate since my parents were able to provide for me during my high school and university days, and I was able to get generous scholarships during my grad and post grad schooling. It is not the same for may others who would have to shell out more to be able to travel between home and school and do not have the choice, given limited resources (i.e., allowances), to select transport with a higher level or quality of service. There are those who have to walk (and even swim) to and from school simply because they have no other means.
I relate my personal experiences as I try to understand the plight of many commuters who have to bear the provisional fare hikes that the LTFRB approved today. This is in part a reaction to the clamor of public transport groups for transport fare increase in relation to the alarming increase in fuel costs. Unfortunately, there is little difference between transport during my time as a student and transport today. In fact, we still are very dependent on tricycles and jeepneys where buses and perhaps rail transport is the more appropriate modes for travel.
Perhaps our continued dependence on transport that is too dependent on fossil fuels whose prices are susceptible to many factors makes us quite vulnerable not just to price changes but also to the whims of a public transport system that has been proven to be inefficient and ineffective. It goes without saying that we need to have the necessary public transport infrastructure built in order for commuters to once and for all be relieved of the constant threats of oil price hikes and fare increases. Too long have been the delays for rail lines and BRTs, and it is costing us billions of pesos that could have instead already paid for these systems that we are hesitant to put up. Only then will we be liberated from those who claim to be concerned about the welfare of commuters but fail to deliver safe and efficient transport services as they put revenue first contrary to their commitments when they got their franchises.
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Caught (up) in traffic 