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On being constructively skeptical on transport and traffic
Social media is full of news or what is being passed off as news about various transport projects or initiatives. These include a proposed subway line for Metro Manila, road sharing initiatives, inter-island bridges, gateway airports and others major infrastructure projects that are being conceptualized, planned, studied or designed. Too often, people who support the projects/initiatives brand those who do not share their enthusiasm and interest as skeptics and even simply “nega” or negative people. These supporters and their opposites are most likely those who fall under one or more of the following categories:
- Overly optimistic
- Unaware of the process towards a project’s realization
- Troll
- Naive
Hopefully, he/she is not of the third kind who basically are posting against anyone and don’t really have any valuable opinion or constructive comment to offer. There are many groups and individuals out there including those who claim to be fanatics of urban planning, railways and other things on transport. Some even get to write in mainstream media. Unfortunately, to the untrained minds their opinions passed on as expert advise appear to be legit and that can be especially true to people who are more inclined to believe them such as very fanatics and trolls I mentioned. It is very important that proper research is undertaken before any article is written. Otherwise, there will always be bias. Of course, some articles are written with bias a given and with the objective of misleading people.
When government officials (or candidates) claim something and offer nothing as concrete proof (e.g., numbers to support a claim of improving traffic), one has to think twice about believing them. One has to be critical of such claims. Promises are often just that – promises. It is important to ask how certain programs or projects will be delivered, how infrastructure will be implemented (i.e., through what mode of financing, timelines, etc.), and what would be its impacts (i.e., social, environmental, traffic). Of course, it should be expected that officials provide suitable answers to these queries.
It should also be expected for officials to understand that institutions such as the academic ones are there to provide objective criticism. Unfortunately, there are those in the academe who themselves have some agenda they are pushing and can be deliberately misleading and misinforming with their flawed assessments and statements. Then there are experts who offer nothing but negative comments. To these people, any idea not coming from them are essentially wrong and it is often difficult to deal with such people among whom are experienced engineers and planners. Being a skeptic is one thing but being a constructive skeptic. That is, one who offers solutions and also willing to tread the middle ground or some reasonable compromise based on the situation and conditions at hand.
This is why an evidence-based approach is needed and should be mainstreamed in many government agencies, particularly those that are involved in evaluations. National agencies like the NEDA, DOTr and the DPWH have the capacity and capability to perform quantitative analysis using recent, valid data. The quality of data tells a lot about the evidence to back up analyses, evaluations and recommendations. One must not forget that with quantitative analysis it is always “garbage in, garbage out”. That is, if you have crappy data, then you will have flawed analysis, evaluations and recommendations.
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Another look at the Tacloban Airport
The Daniel Z. Romualdez Airport in Tacloban City is the busiest in Region 8 (Eastern Visayas). Tacloban being the regional center in terms of commerce/business, attracts significant air traffic and should continue to do so as it steadily recovers from the devastation brought about by Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan). Following are photos of the airport from our recent trip to Leyte, where we had meetings in Tacloban and Ormoc.
Passengers arrive at the Tacloban Airport
Philippine Airlines turboprop aircraft arriving at the airport
Cebu Pacific passengers disembarking from the plane
Passengers waiting for the checked-in luggage at the carousel
Passengers file out of the arrival area unto the terminal’s driveway and parking lot
Visitors may inquire about the Tacloban at the city’s information desk located at the arrival area.
Sign of a rent-a-car service at the airport showing rental options and available vehicle models.
Crowded check-in area at the Tacloban airport passenger terminal
There were long queues at the check-in counters as well as the payment booths for the terminal fee.
We entered a very crowded departure area as flights were delayed and people accumulated at the terminal. These are Air Asia passengers.
These are Philippine Airlines and Cebu Pacific passengers. Notice the temporary wall behind which is a section of the departure area that’s being renovated.
Shops at the departure area sell souvenirs and food items including local delicacies like moron and binagol.
The airport terminal is already very congested and it doesn’t help that flights are frequently delayed for various reasons. In the aftermath of Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan), there have been proposals to move the airport to another location. However, it now seems that there is no better location for this within the city and elsewhere in the province. There are opportunities and potential though to improve the current airport and perhaps make it more resilient against typhoons of the scale of Yolanda.
The proposed new passenger terminal building is already much delayed and the runway can be extended. The latter is now possible with the areas for the extension already cleared of informal settlers mainly due to these areas being ravaged by Yolanda and authorities not permitting people to rebuild their houses there.
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Seemingly minor violations that affect traffic and safety
The following photo shows one of the many minor violations that happen everyday along many roads and particularly at intersections. Motorcyclists and drivers frequently occupy spaces that are supposed to be clear of vehicles. The motorcycles and AUV below occupy the pedestrian crossing that is typically space for pedestrians and cyclists crossing the intersection. Both vehicles also are encroaching upon the intersection’s yellow box, which can be risky given that the intersection is signalised and other vehicles are given the right of movement according to the cycle settings of the intersection.
This and others like it are what seems to be minor incidents but in truth have a combining or cumulative effect on traffic streams that contribute to congestion as well as having implications on road safety. Pedestrians and cyclists are forced to go around the vehicles blocking their paths, likely putting them in harm’s way. Other motorists try to avoid these errant vehicles, which, like in the photo, may be blocking the path of vehicles proceeding towards the intersection leg to the right that is hidden in the picture. Motorists doing this must be apprehended by traffic officers/enforcers as these are clear violations of traffic rules. If one is to promote discipline among road users, then it should start with minor violations that tend to be disregarded by traffic enforcers.
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Evidence from Montreal: Building bike lanes to reduce car use
I just wanted to share this article showing evidence of car use reduction (and therefore, car traffic along roads) with the provision of bicycle lanes.
Building Bike Lanes Really Does Get More People Out of Their Cars
The article though cautions readers against generalising or assuming great improvements. Some figures mentioned in the article including the following (I took the liberty of copying and pasting):
- “A 10% increase in bike accessibility resulted in only a 3.7% increase in ridership.”
- “…cycling infrastructure also reduced greenhouse gas emissions from cars by 1.7%, a reduction equivalent to converting transit buses to hybrids and electrifying commuter trains.”
These numbers are for the case of Montreal, Canada. Not mentioned are the number of cyclists, vehicle traffic volumes and other pertinent data that are useful in analysis. The article correctly points out the importance of using science (e.g., sound analysis based on good data) in order to convince governments to put up bicycle infrastructure. I would even add that this approach should also be applicable to pedestrian facilities.
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On cable cars as a solution to Metro Manila transportation problems
I was asked about my take on the pronouncement about cable cars being a potential solution to Metro Manila’s traffic woes. I say pronouncement because careful qualification of the news articles on this clearly show that this is not yet a proposal. I leave it to the reader to Google these articles on cable cars for Metro Manila.
The first thing that came to my mind are capacity and demand. What would be the capacity for such a system and what could be the demand given that you would have to determine where stations would be. There’s also the fear factor as many people would not be comfortable riding a vehicle so high up in the air and then of course, there’s the wind that will obviously have to be factored in the operation of such cable cars. Suitability is very much an issue here. Perhaps cable cars like the one featured in the news articles are more appropriate for cities like Baguio, Antipolo and Tagaytay? There are very limited applications for Metro Manila even including perhaps possibilities for Ortigas and perhaps Loyola Heights.
I like what my friend, Rene Santiago, said about the cable being one possible answer but not The Answer to Metro Manila’s traffic problems. I am aware of and quite amused by the comments posted on social media about the so-called ‘cable car solution’ as it is definitely not going to make a big impact on Metro Manila transport. I like comments proposing instead improved river transport as well as protected bicycle lanes around the metropolis. These are well-grounded proposals that have been proven elsewhere to be very effective in reducing congestion while mass transit projects are under construction and to be operational in 2 to 3 years time. I think it would be wiser to put your money on bike lanes and even bike bridges than in cable cars.
I was also asked about what should be the first project the new Department of Transportation Secretary Art Tugade should take on. Metro Manila is still very much a “battleground” for transport and traffic, and there are already projects lined up for implementation like the much delayed MRT 7 and the extension of LRT1. The new administration should strongly support such efforts, whether its via Public Private Partnership (PPP) or public funded. That said, I think the incoming Department of Transportation Secretary should work on an urban mass transport project in one of our major cities. Either Cebu or Davao come to mind as these cities are already also congested and would need to have an urban transit system (rail?) very soon in order to avoid becoming another Metro Manila. There are low-hanging fruits in these cities, for example, with the Cebu BRT ready to be taken on by the new administration for full implementation and Davao already being the subject of public transport studies pointing to it being ripe for a rail transit system.
Finally, there are also the outcomes of research & development work by the Department of Science and Technology (DOST). I am referring to the DOST-MIRDC’s road train, AGT and hybrid train projects. The road trains, for example, may be used for Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines that are proposed for C5 and Quezon Avenue. I also think it is worth considering for EDSA. BRT is not technology-specific as far as buses go so why not use Philippine-made buses for this? While these are still subject to third party safety and technical certifications, the Transportation Department could lend a helpful hand towards this certification and this could perhaps ultimately lead to building an industry out of these buses and trains.
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Metro Manila Skybridge: for cars or bicycles?
I was browsing over a not so old, pre-election issue of Top Gear magazine and came upon an article that featured then Senatorial candidate and already former Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) Chair Francis Tolentino. The article stated the former MMDA Chair’s frustration that his pet project didn’t get approval from NEDA. The Skybridge he was proposing was basically an elevated road that was to be built on top of Metro Manila rivers. This is in part to save on RROW costs and supposedly to also reduce traffic impacts of construction (note the traffic congestion due to the Skyway Stage 3 construction).
I think that such a Skybridge could have had a positive impact on traffic congestion but for a short time only. The sheer number of vehicles in Metro Manila will only lead to congestion elsewhere being transferred here and, under equilibrium conditions that will eventually be attained as some time in the near future, will ultimately be congested. The concept of tollways is for people to pay for the use of a facility in return for high level of service (read: faster travel). Skyways and other elevated highways cost a lot and the NEDA probably didn’t see a free use elevated structure like the Skybridge having much in terms of ROI.
There is, however, something that may be worth it in terms of potential congestion reduction as well as enhancement of traffic safety and quality of life – a Skybridge for bicycles and pedestrians. This should encourage people to cycle as travel via such mode will be much safer and could possibly be faster. Friends and acquaintances who are cyclists often post about similar facilities in Europe and how these are able to reduce congestion as people opt to cycle and leave their cars at home during the weekdays.
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Addressing congestion due to school traffic congestion
There are two important traffic news stories yesterday:
- MMDA successfully clears parked vehicles outside La Salle Greenhills
- MMDA sets drop off, pick-up points for Ateneo students
For some reason that’s a bit surprising for many, the MMDA seems to have solved two of the most enduring issues on traffic congestion along two major thoroughfares. LSGH is along Ortigas Avenue while Ateneo is along Katipunan Avenue (C-5). Both have high trip generation rates and a significant percentage of their trip gen is comprised of private vehicles. While, Ateneo’s trip generation has led to traffic congestion due to the sheer number of trips the university attracts, the congestion due to La Salle is due to the poor traffic management and lack of parking spaces for vehicles attracted by the school.
I only wonder why it took so much time to address these problems considering the solutions mentioned in the articles are basically ones that could have been implemented years ago. In the case of La Salle, good old fashioned traffic enforcement apparently did the trick. But then, the MMDA even with the LGU constraint could have been stricter before whether when they were under Bayani Fernando (BF) or any of his successors as MMDA Chair. With Ateneo, the scheme is very similar if not the same as what BF proposed over a decade ago when he was MMDA Chair. At that time though a touchy issue was the U-turn scheme he installed along Katipunan that cost trees and the former service road on the west side of the avenue. We can only hope that these claimed ‘successes’ will be sustained and ensure smoother flow of traffic along the major roads they directly affect.
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On the worsening state of road safety in Metro Manila and adjoining areas
Recent days have seen some serious road crashes occurring along major roads to the east of Metro Manila. A friend posted about a crash along Marcos Highway last June 10 at the still incompletely paved Marcos Bridge. No one was killed in the crash though the driver and passengers sustained serious injuries. However, there was a high potential for this to have been a fatal crash.
Crash involving a truck plowing into the steel fence and median of Marcos Highway near the Marcos Bridge along the eastbound direction of the highway. Both directions of the bridge’s carriageway’s asphalt overlay had been scraped off and remained neglected for several months until this morning when I observed workers laying out asphalt concrete along the eastbound lanes of the bridge.
An even more ugly crash occurred yesterday in Taytay, Rizal when a truck plowed into the tiangge are of Tatay’s public market killing scores of people and injuring more. Here is a link to some photos and videos about the Taytay crash. These two are but examples of what is happening along national and local roads all over the country with many not even being reported on mainstream or social media.
As I have mentioned in previous posts these crashes were all preventable. Truck operators and drivers need to regularly perform maintenance checks on their vehicles. Brakes are among the critical or essential parts that need to be checked especially with safety in mind. How many fatal road crashes have been reported involving brake failure? In the Marcos Bridge crash, there is also the need to make sure roads are well-maintained and projects not left out for months. In fact, poor road pavement conditions also contribute to traffic congestion as vehicles tend to slow down because of the roughness of the road (e.g., too many potholes). How can the next administration reinforce the enforcement of traffic rules and regulations as well as testing of private and public utility vehicles for these to be certified safe for driving along our roads? Will the Department of Transportation (DOT), the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and other allied agencies (e.g., LTO and LTFRB), local government units and private entities come up with a more aggressive effort to curb what seems to an increasing trend in road crashes? We hope so and look forward to positive change coming to our roads.
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Road crashes in Antipolo
I open June with a post on road safety. Last week, I passed by many road crash scenes along my route between my home in Antipolo and my office in Quezon City. Many were the now common crashes involving motorcycles. And there were those involving vehicles that got too close to each other in heavy traffic (e.g., tailgating vehicles eventually bumping the vehicle ahead of them). I was able to get photos of the site of the more serious crashes.
Head on collision of a car and owner-type jeepney along Marcos Highway near the junction with Amb. Neri Road. These crashes are largely preventable if drivers kept to their lanes and refrained from violating the rule of the double yellow line separating opposing flows of traffic. I’ve written about counter flowing before but focused on it leading to traffic congestion. A more serious repercussion would be crashes like this.
Overturned passenger jeepney along Marcos Highway in Mambugan, Antipolo. Speeding and unnecessary manoeuvres along this highway often has led to drivers losing control of their vehicles and, in this case, the vehicle turning over and likely hurting (hopefully not killing) passengers. This is again a very preventable crash considering it can be addressed by proper (read: safe) driving as well as enforcement.
Final ‘resting place’ of a truck that apparently lost control along the Tikling bound side of Ortigas Ave. Extension in Barangay Dolores, Taytay. I’ve noticed many breakdowns and crashes involving trucks along this highway as well as Sumulong Highway and Marcos Highway. Many, it seems, involve poor maintenance of these vehicles as well as overloading. Poorly maintained vehicles may lose control with or without their loads and lead to such crashes that in many cases are fatal to innocent bystanders.
With the onset of the rainy season, many roads will be slippery and this will tend to make them more dangerous. In the cases I mentioned above, most crashes are not the fault of the roads or the infrastructure but of the drivers and/or operators of the vehicles. Most crashes are preventable and are caused by driver error, negligence or aggressive behaviour. It is often the nut behind the wheel who is responsible for such crashes rather than the vehicle or the road.
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Better indicators than GDP
A friend shared this article on social media:
Five measures of growth that are better than GDP
The article explains in clear and simple terms five better indicators of growth and development than what is regarded as the conventional and traditional measure that is gross domestic product (GDP). There is an analogy in the article using speed, a parameter in traffic, to explain how GDP is insufficient in describing growth in a more complete manner. For example, in the Philippines, the significant increase in GDP over the last 6 years has been mentioned as proof of economic growth. While this is true, many people could not appreciate this growth since there is the perception is that it is not inclusive. That is, economic development is not felt by many who are in the lower income classes.
Speed, indeed, is not enough to describe the transport situation along a road considering that there are other metrics needed to have a more complete picture of transport and traffic conditions. I will talk about this in another posting soon.
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Caught (up) in traffic 