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Some concerns about future rail ridership

March 2019
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Traveling along Commonwealth Avenue and Marcos Highway the past week, I both hopeful and worried about what happens after the Line 7 and Line 2 Extension finally becomes operational. Much has been said or reported about the potential of these two lines to change the way people commute; at least from the areas served by these two mass transit lines. However, how big an impact these would have in terms of actual reduction of private car use  remains to be seen.

Will there be significant decreases in the volume of motor vehicles along Commonwealth Avenue, Marcos Highway and Aurora Boulevard? Or will there be just the same traffic along these roads? The worry is based on the likelihood that those who would be taking Lines 2 and 7 would be people who are already taking public transportation and not those who have chosen to leave their cars (or motorcycles) at home.

Our students have been studying ridesharing and P2P bus operations the past few years and the conclusion has so far been a shift from one mode of public transport to what’s perceived as a better one. It’s somewhat a difficult thing to accept for advocates of public transport especially those behind TNVS, P2P buses and railways but it is what it is, and its important to accept such findings in order for us to understand what’s going on and come up with better ways to promote public transport and convince car users to use PT.

Traffic flows at the Masinag junction with the Line 2 Masinag Station and elevated tracks in the background

What is more intriguing is the proposed subway line for Metro Manila. The alignment is different from the ones identified in previous studies for the metropolis and from what I’ve gathered should have stations that serve a North-South corridor that should make for a more straightforward commute (i.e., less transfers) for those taking the subway.

Probable MM Subway alignment (from the internet)

It is another line that has a big potential as a game-changer for commuters but we won’t be able to know for sure until perhaps 5 or 6 years from now. What we know really is that there was a lost opportunity back in the 1970s when government should have pushed for its first subway line instead of opting for the LRT Line 1.


1 Comment

  1. D says:

    The key to convincing car users to shift to public transportation is whether intermodal transfers are conveniently available. If a car user’s origin and destination are within walking distance of train stations, then it’s a no-brainer to shift to trains to avoid heavy traffic. If the car user lives deep inside a subdivision in the suburbs like those that will be served by LRT2 extension, what are the options? Should there be dedicated park-and-ride facilities at Masinag station to attract car-to-train users?

    If the destination is not within walking distance of a train station, how easy is it to to transfer to a bus or jeep? Even transferring between LRT2 and MRT3 at Cubao is quite a trek particularly when the mall is not yet fully open. At least LRT2 and LRT1 has a straightforward walkway connecting Recto and Doroteo Jose stations.

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